Futurist Thinking to Navigate a Rapidly Evolving Industry

The recent COVID-19 pandemic prompted many organizations to explore futurist thinking to be more resilient through future disruptions. A futurist approach utilizes environmental scanning, interdisciplinary perspectives and imaginative speculation. Futurist thinking looks at long time horizons, boldly embraces uncertainty and explores possibilities that might ordinarily be dismissed as “unlikely.” Considering outcomes that might happen unlocks the possibility of innovation as futurists explore the potential impacts and needs of the “what if?” scenario.

Although beneficial, futurist thinking has advantages beyond preparation for paradigm-shifting events and can serve all of us as the credentialing industry evolves. With the agility and responsiveness built through futurist thinking, organizations can capitalize on and be more responsive to even slight shifts within our industry.

Exercising a futurist mentality equips leaders, departments and organizations to anticipate, prepare for and navigate change proactively. By staying ahead of the crowd and ensuring practices remain relevant and effective through challenges, every organization and business can better serve their stakeholders and maximize success.

A review of the topics from ATP 2023 Innovations in Testing conference provided insight into key changes that are presently areas of rapid evolution in the credentialing industry:

• Artificial intelligence (AI): How will AI drive changes in the item development process? What does the adoption of AI as an assistive technology mean for the evolution of a credential’s required knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs)?
• Pandemic-driven adaptations: How will the desire for greater remote work impact office culture? What does the rush of online testing options mean for the future of both online and onsite delivery?
• Workforce structure: How are cultural and societal changes continuing to shape the workforce, and does this impact how credentials are viewed and used? In what ways are the needs of our stakeholders changing in this evolving landscape?
• Education models: How do transformations in higher education impact our credentials and assessments? How can we leverage diverse methodologies such as formative assessments to meet emerging needs?

In our 2023 I.C.E. Exchange session “To the Future, and Beyond! Applying a Futurist Mindset to Achieve the Possibilities of Tomorrow,” we explored the possibilities of tomorrow by engaging in exercises to help organizations adopt a growth mindset. In particular, these exercises introduced a futurist mentality that aimed to allow organizations to effectively scan for emerging issues, evaluate their potential impact and be better prepared to address and capitalize on changes that may occur. The interactive session also allowed attendees to benefit from the varied perspectives that come through collaboration with others, which strengthens futurist thinking. Exercises were completed that allowed attendees to build their capability to play with scenarios where at least one thing about their world is dramatically different and they are attempting to navigate that new world from someone else’s perspective. Two futurist concepts, learning to time travel in your mind and practicing hard empathy were employed during this exercise. Continued practice of exercises such as this allows individuals to develop skills to anticipate and create change.

Anyone who has a strategic role to play in the development or delivery of credentials should be working to improve their ability to think like a futurist. Although important, this is not something you are expected to do every day. Instead, futurist thinking is best achieved only after one has completed the necessary scanning of emerging topics that could impact one’s work, life or industry. Using the signals discovered, a leader should give themselves time every few months to practice futurist thinking to ensure that they are staying on track towards creating a desired future state and avoiding key negative outcomes.

At an organizational level, when conducting strategic planning every three to five years, the board of directors should be led through futurist thinking exercises to enhance their strategic plan goals. By doing so, the organization can establish near-term goals that will serve as mile markers toward the organization’s preferred outcome. This allows organizational staff to track progress toward the envisioned outcome and identify sooner, rather than later, the reality of what future is forming. This in turn allows for organizational leadership to adequately reassess and adjust plans accordingly.

When leading forward-thinking exercises, remember key principles of a futurist mindset:

1. Forget about predictions: Stop trying to guess what the future will look like! Instead, learn to ask powerful questions that will help guide you to finding the answers you truly need. There are an infinite number of possible futures; don’t think you can pick out the one that will occur.
2. Focus on signals of change: Explore the broad forces that will create ripples of change and pay attention to the ripples. By monitoring what is changing and in what direction it is changing, you will be able to envision the more likely futures to prepare for.
3. Look back to see forward: The past will not predict the future, but the past can reveal patterns that help us understand the present and envision likely future outcomes. Look for repetition in our past, see how it aligns to today and you’ll gain insight into the future.

Additional principles are summarized by Marina Gorbis, executive director of the Institute for the Future (IFTF). The IFTF is a non-profit organization committed to helping others become future-ready, providing trainings and resources for individual leaders and organizations. Another helpful resource when applying a futurist mindset to the credentialing industry is the I.C.E. Future of Credentialing (FoC) Report, which provides research and resources to empower credentialing organizations and leaders. The change drivers described within the report provide important insight into anticipated changes affecting credentialing organizations. For further reading on the principles of futurist thinking, we suggest “Imaginable: How to Create a Hopeful Future” by Jane McGonigal and “Think Like a Futurist: Know What Changes, What Doesn’t and What’s Next” by Cecily Sommers.

By applying a futurist mindset, credentialing bodies can not only adapt to changes, but also shape the future of our industry. Mastering the art of navigating uncertainty empowers your organization to make more confident and well-informed decisions, while also uncovering fresh opportunities.